Bitcoin Bear Market May Be Over as TD9 Signal Fires for First Time Since 2022
A rare TD9 reversal indicator has triggered on Bitcoin for the first time since July 2022, suggesting the current bear cycle may be approaching its end.
A closely watched technical signal has appeared on Bitcoin's price chart for the first time in nearly three years, reigniting debate among analysts about whether the cryptocurrency's bear market has run its course. The TD Sequential indicator — known as the TD9 — has fired a reversal signal that mirrors conditions last seen in July 2022, a period that preceded Bitcoin's eventual recovery from its cycle lows.
The TD9 is a momentum-exhaustion tool developed by market technician Tom DeMark. It counts nine consecutive price bars moving in one direction and flags potential trend reversals when that count is complete. When this signal appeared in mid-2022, it marked what would prove to be the terminal phase of that bear market, lending the current reading added significance for traders watching for a bottom.
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What makes this signal analytically noteworthy is not simply its appearance in isolation, but its rarity. A TD9 reversal on Bitcoin's higher timeframes has not materialized since the depths of the last major downturn, which means the market has traveled a full cycle without generating this kind of exhaustion reading — until now. For technical analysts, the symmetry with 2022 conditions is difficult to dismiss outright, even as fundamental catalysts remain mixed.
That said, technical signals of this type are probabilistic, not deterministic. The TD9 identifies exhaustion but cannot guarantee a sustained reversal; false positives are a documented risk, particularly in assets as sentiment-driven as Bitcoin. Analysts would typically look for confirming signals — rising volume, macro tailwinds, or on-chain accumulation patterns — before treating the indicator as a definitive call on market direction.
Still, the appearance of the TD9 at this juncture adds a meaningful data point to an ongoing conversation about where Bitcoin stands in its broader market cycle. Whether the signal marks a true inflection point or a temporary pause in a longer downturn will likely become clear in the weeks ahead. Continue reading at Cointelegraph.
